Obama: ‘If you don’t vote that’s a vote for Trump.  If you vote for a third party candidate with no chance to win, that’s a vote for Trump’.

Those are the words of a frightened man.  Despite Hillary Clinton’s apparent triumph in the debate, despite the odds being on Clinton to win, despite the Huffington post and the New York Times giving her an above eighty per cent chance of winning, there’s still doubt.  In fact, there’s an awful lot of doubt.

The post- debate poll by CNN and research company ORC seemed to give Hillary Clinton a clear lead, but only 521 people were polled and of those 41% had identified themselves as Democrats. As a poll it’s hardly a secure indicator of public opinion. On social media there were a lot of people talking about how they thought Donald Trump had won and that should worry the Clinton camp and it almost certainly does.  The fact is that even though he didn’t beat Hillary Clinton in debate, even though he keeps on making those outrageous statements, like the Terminator, he just keeps on coming, he’s bullet proof.

It’s no good thinking he’s going to mess up in the final weeks, he’s already messed up, it makes no difference.  Michael Moore has posted his thoughts online as to why he thinks Trump will win and his arguments are hard to get around.  He argues that this will be a ‘Rust Belt Brexit’.  In the run up to Britain’s vote about whether to remain in the EU the remain vote was in the lead in the polls and the bookies odds were on remain to win.  The leave campaign made increasingly inflammatory and outrageous statements and no one seriously thought they would win.  And then the angry people of an unhappy nation went into the privacy of a polling booth and vented their anger.

You can see where I’m going with this.  There’s a lot of angry people out there, just how many we may soon find out.  Then there’s the problem of Hilary’s gender.  Surely not a problem, Germany has a female head of state, Britain has a female head of state, why not America?  All the women will vote for Hillary won’t they?  The answer to that is, not necessarily.  Research suggests that women will vote for man because they believe him to be a good leader or they agree with his policies but they don’t have to like him to vote for him.  When it comes to voting for a woman, the rules are different, they have to like her and too many women don’t really like Hillary.  Although her enthusiasm rating did increase slightly after the debate, the problem for Hillary Clinton is a lack of enthusiasm from her supporters, hence President Obama’s attempt to stir the army of the disaffected into action.

Maybe Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns and the implication that he hasn’t paid tax for eighteen years will turn voters off, but I wouldn’t count on it. Whatever the polls say, for my money, it’s going to be too close to call.