The first Friday of every month is usually known as “jobs Friday,” when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its monthly employment report, one of the most important snapshots of the U.S. economy. But this month, the numbers won’t be coming.
Because of the ongoing government shutdown, the BLS has temporarily closed, and more than 2,000 employees have been furloughed. That means September’s employment data — which could have given vital insight into the direction of the U.S. labor market — is on hold until Congress approves new funding.
The delay comes at a critical time. The unemployment rate has been edging higher all year, moving from 4% in January to 4.3% in August. Meanwhile, private-sector data released Wednesday by payroll giant ADP showed a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September, defying expectations of a 45,000-job gain. That surprise has left economists, businesses, and policymakers without the official federal numbers they typically rely on to understand the shifting labor market.
The blackout also creates major challenges for the Federal Reserve. Officials are preparing to decide whether to adjust interest rates again this month but could be forced to make that decision without the most up-to-date government data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently admitted that policymakers are struggling with the unusual economic landscape. “There’s no risk-free path,” Powell said in September, noting that inflation has stayed high even as the labor market shows signs of weakening.
If the shutdown drags into mid-October, other key BLS reports — including the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and import price data — could also be delayed. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase warned that without official reports, the Fed will likely rely on alternative measures, such as ADP’s private employment data, weekly jobless claims, consumer confidence surveys, and reports of job cuts.
Former BLS Commissioner William Beach pointed out that September’s jobs report is likely already in “final draft” form, since it is normally completed the Wednesday before release. In typical circumstances, the commissioner briefs top officials, including the Federal Reserve Board and the White House, the day before the public announcement. “If there is no publication on Friday,” Beach wrote this week, “the administration does not get a preview of it on Thursday either.”
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said the department plans to release the numbers as soon as the shutdown ends. In past shutdowns, it has taken several days for reports to be published even after agencies reopened. During the 2013 government shutdown, for example, the jobs data was released four days after offices reopened, while the Consumer Price Index was delayed more than a week.
For now, uncertainty remains the biggest factor weighing on both Wall Street and Washington. Economists generally believe the shutdown itself will have only a minimal effect on growth, since much of the lost economic activity tends to bounce back once the government reopens. But combined with climbing unemployment, unexpected private-sector job losses, and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle with inflation, the delay adds yet another layer of unpredictability to an already fragile economy.
