As voters prepare to cast their ballots Tuesday, President Donald Trump is already turning his attention to the 2026 midterm elections, reflecting both determination and concern over the future of his political influence.
“We’ve had success like nobody, but for some reason, you lose the midterms,” Trump said late last month at the White House. “I don’t know why. It doesn’t make sense.”
The elections this week represent the first major electoral test of Trump’s second term. Key contests include gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, California’s pivotal ballot measure to redraw congressional districts, and New York City’s mayoral election. While results will not provide a perfect gauge, they could offer early insight into voter sentiment toward the Trump administration and the broader political climate leading into the 2026 midterms.
“We have to win the midterms,” Trump told Senate Republicans during a lunch in the Rose Garden. “Otherwise, all of the things that we’ve done, so many of them, are going to be taken away by the radical left lunatics. I mean, we’re going to end up with a communist mayor in New York. Can you believe it?”
Trump has kept a close eye on the New York mayoral race, frequently criticizing Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, who has become a central foil for Republicans as Democrats work to rebuild their party. While Trump has fully endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, he has been more cautious in Virginia, where GOP candidate Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears faces strong competition.
“People like me there,” Trump said of New Jersey. “It’s typically not Republican, but turning Republican very quickly.”
The contests in Virginia and New Jersey reflect broader political dynamics. In New Jersey, Trump improved his performance in 2024 compared with 2020, narrowing his loss from 16 points to six, but Democrats maintain a significant voter registration advantage. In Virginia, a government shutdown affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees adds pressure to the election, while former Rep. Abigail Spanberger continues to lead Earle-Sears in polls.
Trump has remained involved in closing campaign efforts, including a Thursday tele-rally and a Monday pep rally from the Oval Office aimed at boosting GOP voter turnout. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama campaigned in both states to mobilize Democratic voters, warning that Trump’s policies contribute to “a pretty dark place” in U.S. politics.
“If you get a flat tire on the way home today, she’s going to blame President Trump,” Ciattarelli said at campaign stops, underscoring the role Trump plays in shaping political narratives.
The elections also highlight an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting battle. After Texas redrew congressional lines to favor Republicans, California proposed a measure to strengthen Democratic representation. Similar efforts are underway in states like North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and Kansas, with Virginia considering a constitutional amendment. Trump’s advisers say he is “obsessively focused” on these efforts, determined to avoid repeating the setbacks experienced during his first term.
“Everything’s about Trump, it seems,” said Sharon Cox, a Republican voter in Virginia.
As the nation awaits the results, Trump remains fixated on the upcoming midterms. “If you have a great presidency, it only makes sense that you win the midterms,” he said. “There might be some dark, deep psychological reason where they want to vote the opposite way. I don’t know what it is.”
